How to: Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis helps you understand how changes in key assumptions affect performance, liquidity and risk. In X-ASTRiS you compare every scenario against a fixed base case — and you can save up to five additional scenarios (e.g. upside, downside, bank case).
Core concept
A scenario is a set of adjustments to selected drivers in the forecast years. The base case remains unchanged and serves as the reference point for comparison.
- – The base case is your reference (fixed)
- – The base year is never changed
- – Adjustments apply from Year 1 onwards
- – You can save scenarios (up to five additional) and reuse/export them consistently
Step-by-step
- 1. Complete your base case first
Before running scenarios, make sure your P&L and Balance Sheet inputs are complete and saved. Scenario analysis builds on this base case.
- 2. Open the Scenario analysis view
Navigate to the Scenario Analysis view. You’ll see the base case as the reference and a scenario layer on top.
- 3. Adjust key drivers using sliders
Use sliders to adjust selected drivers such as growth rates, margins, payroll assumptions, capex, opex, or working capital ratios.
Sliders only affect forecast years. The base year remains unchanged so comparisons stay meaningful.
- 4. Save the scenario (recommended)
When you land on a meaningful case (e.g. Upside, Downside, Bank case), save it so you can return to it later and export it consistently. You can save up to five additional scenarios.
- 5. Compare base case vs scenario outputs
Outputs update instantly as you move sliders (or load a saved scenario). Use this to see the impact across performance, cash and risk.
- 6. Export a board / investor-ready Excel pack
Use the Excel Export Center to export the base case or any saved scenario. Exports include the integrated P&L, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow plus key financing ratios.
Selecting outputs to analyze
Scenario analysis is most powerful when you focus on outputs that match the decision you’re testing. Pick a small set of metrics and compare them across base case and scenarios.
- • Revenue
- • EBITDA
- • Net result
- • Cash balance and runway
- • Net debt
- • Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR)
- • Debt / EBITDA
- • Solvency ratio
Pick one or two outputs that reflect the decision you’re testing (e.g. cash runway for hiring, Debt/EBITDA for financing). Add one sanity check output (e.g. EBITDA vs cash) to avoid blind spots.
Interpreting results
- – Look for directional impact, not false precision
- – Change one lever at a time to understand causality
- – Compare multiple outputs (e.g. EBITDA vs cash) to avoid blind spots
- – Use ratios to understand risk, not just growth
Once you understand the scenario impact, refine your base case, run readiness checks, and export results for sharing.